Before It Is Too Late

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Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat no longer has the legitimacy to rule. He is now staying in Chiang Mai instead of coming down to Bangkok to deal with the crisis. He is afraid that he might be nabbed by the Military.

This shows that he is not in charge. The Military does not listen to him. The business associations are also threatening to adopt civil disobedience by not paying tax if the government insist on staying.

Now it is too late to blame anybody. The PAD is bad, so is the selfish Government. Both sides have to make one step backward for a compromise to happen. The Military is watching. If both the PAD and the Government can’t strike a deal sooner rather than later, the Military would step in to clean up the mess.

The PAD must end all rallies. In return, the Government must resign.

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat no longer has the legitimacy to rule. He is now staying in Chiang Mai instead of coming down to Bangkok to deal with the crisis. He is afraid that he might be nabbed by the Military.

This shows that he is not in charge. The Military does not listen to him. The business associations are also threatening to adopt civil disobedience by not paying tax if the government insist on staying.

Time is no on anybody’s side because the airport fiasco will have long-term adverse impact on Thailand’s fundamentals.

An interim government is one of the proposals. Trairong Suwannakhiri of the Democrat Party has proposed that Somchai step down to pave the way for Parliament, with bipartisan agreement, to amend the Constitution, in which a non-elected outsider can serve as prime minister.

The new prime minister will have a free hand to pick a new Cabinet, which can come from both the coalition partners or the opposition. The interim government will serve for one year, during which time it will have to work on national reconciliation.

This may sound like wishful thinking because the conflict is very deep. Even though the PAD’s protesters disperse tomorrow, the problem is still there.

Without removing the Thaksin Equation, it will be impossible to work out a permanent solution. Thaksin Shinawatra wants his Bt76 billion back and all the cases against him thrown out of the court of justice. But the Thai Court can’t compromise on the rule of law.

Red Shirt people’s hitting Yellow Shirt protesters represents the peripheral that can be brought under control.

The PAD’s taking on the nominee Somchai Government represents another inner layer of the conflict that also can be resolved.

But the heart of the matter is the Thaksin Equation going against the Rule of Law System.

Are we going to make a compromise on the Thaksin Equation against the Rule of Law System? If we can’t reach a compromise, there will be a civil war. If we can reach a deal, we’ll sacrifice the Rule of Law System.

 By divorcing his wife Khunying Pojaman, Thaksin is assuming a symbolic  suicidal mode, ready to go to winner-takes-all war. The PAD have also assumed a symbolic suicidal mode by taking over the airports. Both feel they have nothing to lose further.

 This is the dilemma of Thailand. The Military’s patience is running thin.

Thanong Khanthong

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