The anti-government protesters must move out of the Suvarnabhumi Airport. The Somchai government must resign or dissolve Parliament. The military must stand still and resist the temptation to stage a coup to end the crisis. These are big ifs…
The Thai crisis is now caught in a triangular deadlock that has no way out.
But above all, nobody is talking about how we are going to remove the Thaksin Equation from the crisis. If this Thaksin Equation is not taken into account, then the crisis will develop until we have a civil war in front of our eyes. Already, there are pocket of violences — Red Shirt people versus Yellow Shirt people — in different parts of the country.
We all are standing at the edge of a cliff. One step away we’ll all be plunging into hell. The whole country will be breaking into parts.
The southern people have already warned that if the police use force against the anti-government protesters at the airports, they will separate the south from Chumporn downward from the rest of the country.
Somchai Wongsawat, the prime minister, has been establishing his stronghold in Chiang Mai for the third day. He won’t return to Bangkok until he is really in command of the situation.
Chiang Mai is now metaphorically a new capital of Thailand.
This has far-reaching psychological implications. In away, Somchai — and Thaksin Shinawatra by extension — would like to create an image that Bangkok has deep-seated problems. Bangkok would never accept the voice of the rural North and Northeast.
If Bangkok does not trust him, it’s OK because